As the dust settles on the first six months of 2025, one thing is clear: the outdoor industry remains dynamic, resilient, and deeply influenced by timing and conditions on the ground.
Data pulled from thousands of bookings across Flybook’s platform, and additional insights from our partners at Zebulon, paint a rich picture of the year so far. Q1 delivered strong reservation volume and higher-than-average booking values. In contrast, April and early May saw a clear softening with a slight uptick during Memorial Day, especially in lead time and overall volume.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. Booking windows may be shrinking, but average reservation values remain high, and weather-triggered bookings (particularly in rafting and lodging) have already begun to rebound heading into the summer.
Here’s a snapshot of what we’ve seen so far:
- +17.1% YoY total reservation value increase in Q1, with some slowing in April and May which showed a 4.9% increase.
- Booking windows dropped by ~10 days from March to May, which is in line with regular patterns seen in previous years.
- Lodging costs continue to climb, with 2025 average costs 15–30% higher than 2021.
- Weather plays a key role in bookings, but only when media coverage creates urgency.
- Some of the January-to-May trends in 2025 look very similar to 2023.
This mid-year momentum report provides data-backed insights across lodging, rafting, and much more, and offers three specific moves operators can take to stay competitive through the second half of the year. With a sneak peek at what’s covered, here’s what Brenna Hasty, President of The Flybook, had to say about the current state of the industry:
“What we’re seeing across The Flybook platform is a reflection of just how adaptable this industry really is. Operators are reading the room, pivoting quickly, marketing smarter, and staying connected to what their guests need in real time. That agility, paired with the steady demand we’re seeing in lodging and higher-value bookings, gives us a lot of confidence heading into the back half of the year.”
Table of Contents
- Market Snapshot
- Rafting & More Industry Insights (Zebulon)
- Lodging Performance (Flybook + Zebulon Combined)
- Adapting to Uncertainty: Trip Protection + Triggers
- Forecast for Summer + Fall
- 3 Moves to Make Now (Based on Data)
- Final Thoughts
Market Snapshot (All Flybook Clients)
Flybook’s data from January through May shows a year that started strong and gradually shifted in pace. In Q1, booking windows extended up to 48 days on average, suggesting early-season confidence and early-planning from customers. Then we entered springtime and we saw average booking windows drop to around 24 days, reflecting faster, more reactive trip planning from consumers.
Even with smaller windows, reservation values stayed elevated. May’s average booking total was $451, slightly down from $509 in April, but still higher than where things were a couple years ago, and well above pre-pandemic norms. While volume softened through April and early May, Memorial Day provided a welcome bump that helped close the gap!
Key Highlights:
- Q1 Strength: Average booking windows peaked near 49 days in January and February, with high reservation values across the board.
- April/May Slowdown: As booking windows shortened by ~10 days on average, reservation value dipped slightly, though a nice Memorial Day weekend bump helped close the gap.
- 2025 vs. 2024: Year-to-date total reservation value is up 10.9%, and average reservation value is up 5.9% YoY.
Rafting & More Industry Insights (Zebulon)
If you’re not familiar with Zebulon LLC, they do management consulting (including Financial Planning & Analysis) for outdoor outfitters. Their clientele primarily consists of rafting outfits, with some lodging, adventure activities, and multi-day hikes represented, too. Their nationwide swath of clients gives them access to unique data sets, which they analyze through their Central Data Hub.
Zebulon’s YoY “Purchase Date” data shows increased quantities of activities booked from January to May (even though the activities themselves may occur outside that timeframe). Their data for 2025 shows an 11% increase in total sales, fueled by a more than 4% increase in the quantity of passengers over 2024.
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Like The Flybook, Zebulon’s passenger count and total sales numbers for 2025 are closer to 2023’s numbers - furthering the argument that last year’s middling performance may have been an anomaly.
However, when it comes to Zebulon’s “Start Date” stats (activities that actually took place during this article’s timeframe of January to May 2025), 2025’s numbers closely mimic 2024’s. The notable exception here is that May ‘25 slightly underperformed May ‘24, likely due to uncooperative weather systems especially around Memorial Day.
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Here is Zeb Smith, founder of Zebulon LLC, with some key takeaways from their spring 2025 data:
“This year, consumers aren't afraid of missing out, like they were immediately following the pandemic. The pressure to book in advance is off, and consumers are back to in-destination booking like before Covid. This, mixed with seasonally cool weather across the nation, has made for a tough planning season. Regional weather appears to have had the most impact than anything else right now.
Our expert recommendation: Stay the course, cross-sell and up-sell before customers arrive, and send 'em home with some photos or swag. Manage spend like cash is tight, and make sure to have fun this summer!”
Lodging Performance (Flybook + Zebulon Combined)
Lodging bookings across both Flybook and Zebulon clients continue to be a bright spot in the first half of 2025. Total lodging revenue and nightly averages both outpaced previous years. This trend held even though we saw adventure activity bookings dip in early spring. Average nightly costs in many regions exceeded $95, especially when booked in Q1, with weekend rates significantly higher. Average nightly cost dipped as time went on, which we expect is from early people booking up most of the premium vacation days earlier in the year.
Interestingly, booking windows for lodging also contracted, but less aggressively than adventure activities. The pattern mimics what we saw in 2024, with February and March being outliers with higher avg booking windows than in previous years. This may reflect travelers’ tendency to lock in accommodations early, then fill in activities later. From a strategy standpoint, this gives lodging-first operators a lead generation advantage.
Key Highlights:
- 2025 Lodging Avg. Cost: Prices, for the most part have stayed fairly consistent to 2024, while greatly eclipsing 2023.
- Booking Behavior: Booking windows for lodging compressed this spring, though not as sharply as in other categories.
- Regional Strengths: Lodging held steady even as activities softened in April and May. Some adventure activity's woes seemed related to bad weather in certain regions.
Adapting to Uncertainty: Trip Protection + Triggers
Operators are using a growing toolbox of tactics to navigate the industry’s unpredictability. Trip protection, once viewed as a guest upsell, is now seen as critical infrastructure in today’s checkout flows. It not only protects the operator's revenue, but also builds consumer trust and increases conversion rates.
At the same time, successful operators are taking action on local triggers, weather shifts, school breaks, and even traffic reports to launch targeted campaigns. In a year where lead times are shrinking, relevance and timing matter more than ever. Regional holidays and micro-events often outperform large seasonal pushes, and having the right game plan can be crucial to finding success with these regular occurrences.
Key Highlights:
- Trip protection is increasingly seen as a weather-proofing strategy by operators.
- Operators that use local triggers (e.g., weather breaks, event weekends, regional holidays) to spin up campaigns perform better in shoulder months.
- Booking resilience proves that media influence has a stronger impact than actual event severity (e.g., wildfires).
Forecast for Summer + Fall
Positive Outlook! As we move into the heart of the summer season, the data points to a 2025 curve that’s beginning to track closely with what we saw in 2023. June started strong across many operators, particularly for weekend and group-based bookings, but softened toward the end of the month. The slight downturn appears tied more to consumer behavior shifts, such as shorter booking windows and weather-based decision making, than to waning demand.
Looking forward, July and early August are shaping up to be strong. Projected bookings follow a familiar arc: a sharp mid-summer peak in volume, followed by a gradual taper as the back-to-school period kicks in. If this trend holds, many operators should prepare for a heavier concentration of bookings closer to regularly strong stretches, especially for weekend getaways and last-minute group outings.
Despite the volume fluctuations, average reservation values remain high, which should help buoy revenue performance even if booking counts fall slightly short of 2024 levels. Combined with increased lodging rates and higher group sizes, total revenue could stay healthy well into the fall.
Key Takeaway: If 2025 continues mirroring 2023, operators should expect a strong July, a solid early August, and then a predictable slowdown heading into September. To capture late-season demand, staying agile with marketing and maintaining visibility across mobile and social platforms will be critical. As always, flexibility and readiness remain key to capitalizing on the compressed consumer decision-making window.
3 Moves to Make Now (Based on Data)
- Use Local Triggers to Drive Demand
Weather breaks, regional events, and long weekends are golden opportunities. Promote them in real-time through email and social. - Simplify for Short-Window Shoppers
With average booking windows narrowing, remove friction. Optimize for mobile, use shorter forms, and highlight availability clearly. - Package + Promote Value, Not Discounts
Higher reservation values indicate customers will pay more, so promote packages, bundles, or exclusive perks to drive revenue without cutting prices.
Final Thoughts
The story unfolding in 2025 echoes much of what we saw in 2023, a year that proved steady, successful, and representative of a new normal in the outdoor industry. The similarities aren’t subtle: booking windows, total revenue patterns, and even spring slowdowns are lining up nearly identically across both Flybook and Zebulon platforms. This points to stability returning, not volatility.
That said, this season isn’t without its challenges. Consumers are booking later, reacting more to local weather than ever before, and expecting more from digital experiences. But one that thing hasn’t changed, and likely won’t anytime soon, is their willingness to spend when the value is clear. Whether it’s premium lodging rates or high average cart sizes, travelers are still showing up ready, just on a tighter timeline. The key differences in 2025 are how they shop and when they book. If 2023 taught us anything, it’s that flexibility wins, and that locally relevant, well-packaged experiences outperform generic season-long campaigns every time.
Looking ahead, we believe the second half of 2025 will be defined by proactive marketing, responsive planning, and real-time audience engagement - the stuff that truly matters for any successful business. The year isn’t shaping up to break records, but it doesn’t have to. For many operators, matching or slightly exceeding 2023, and especially 2024 numbers, would be a win. The tools are in place. The interest is there. Now it’s time to execute!
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